基于启发式Johnson算法优化BP神经网络的水产养殖产量预测模型

针对水产养殖产量预测难的现状,提出一种基于启发式Johnson算法优化的反向传播神经网络(BPNN)的产量预测模型。该模型在传统BP神经网络的基础上,针对网络训练时间长、易陷入局部最优的问题,通过启发式Johnson算法降低输入神经元维度,再结合试凑法确定神经网络隐层个数,构建启发式Johnson反向传播神经网络(HJA-BPNN)学习预测模型。实验结果表明,该模型在山东省对虾海水养殖产量预测中,预测的均方根误差小于传统BP神经网络和GM(1,1),且学习效率相比传统BP神经网络有所提升。研究表明,该学习预测模型在大量历史数据的模型构造上有更大的优势,能够缩短建模时间,同时获得良好的预测效果,为水产养殖产量预测提供了一种可行的新方法。     

Conservation needs for the endangered New Zealand sea lion,Phocarctos hookeri

1. Understanding population size and trend is critical information in species management and conservation. To enable accurate population trend estimates, consistent robust monitoring of a species is essential, particularly for a species such as the New Zealand (NZ) sea lion, Phocarctos hookeri , which has experienced an almost continuous decline in pup production since the late 1990s.
2. This research examines the pup production estimates for all known breeding sites for this species, and using a stage‐structured matrix population model, estimates population size and trend between 1995 and 2015.
3. Overall, it is estimated that 2,316 pups were born in 2015, a decrease of 13% since 1995 and a 27% decline since the highest pup production estimate in 1998. This decline has been driven by the significant decline of 48% at the main breeding area, the Auckland Islands since 1998.
4. Using the stage‐structured matrix population model a total species population size of 11,767 sea lions (95% CrI: 10,790–12,923) was estimated. This is the lowest population size of any sea lion species. Trend data for the Auckland Islands indicated that pup and population numbers have decreased at 1.9% yr^?1 in the last 20 yr, while total species population decline is 0.6% yr^?1.
5. Estimates of population trends for this species have been hindered by inconsistent monitoring at most breeding sites. This study strengthens the growing field of research highlighting the need for consistent long‐term monitoring for the conservation management of endangered species.

     

Finding suitable growth models for turbot (Scophthalmus maximus L.) in aquaculture 1 (length application)

Growth data of two different commercial turbot (Scophthalmus maximus) strains reared in recirculating aquaculture systems were analysed with the aim to determine the most suitable model for turbot. To assess the model performance three different criteria were used: (1) The mean percentage deviation between the estimated length and actual length; (2) the residual standard error with corresponding degrees of freedom and (3) the Akaike information criterion. The analyses were carried out for each strain separately, for sexes within strains and for a pooled data set containing both strains and sexes. We tested a pre‐selection of six models, containing three to four parameters. Models were of monomolecular shape or sigmoid shape with a flexible point of inflection including the special case of monomolecular shape in defined cases of their parameters. The 4‐parametric Schnute model achieved best fit in 62% of all cases and criteria tested, followed by the also 4‐parametric generalized Michaelis–Menten equation in 48% and the 4‐parametric Janoschek model (38%). The von Bertalanffy growth function achieved only 29%, Brody 24% and a new flexible function 19% best fit. In a 1–1000 day growth‐simulation sigmoid shaped curves were produced by the Schnute model in 71% of cases. The Janoschek and the Michaelis–Menten model each produced sigmoid curves in 57% of all cases. This indicates that a flexible 4‐parametric function reflects the growth curve of turbot the best and that this curve is rather sigmoid than monomolecular shaped.     

Exploring connectivity between spawning and nursery areas of Mullus barbatus (L., 1758) in the Mediterranean through a dispersal model

Connectivity between spawning and nursery areas plays a major role in determining the spatial structure of fish populations and the boundaries of stock units. Here, the potential effects of surface current on a red mullet population in the Central Mediterranean were simulated using a physical oceanographic model. Red mullet larvae were represented as Lagrangian drifters released in known spawning areas of the Strait of Sicily (SoS), which represents one of the most productive demersal fishing‐grounds of the Mediterranean. To consider the effect of inter‐annual variability of oceanographic patterns, numerical simulations were performed for the spawning seasons from 1999 to 2012. The main goal was to explore connectivity between population subunits, in terms of spawning and nursery areas, inhabiting the northern (Sicilian‐Maltese) and southern (African) continental shelves of the SoS. The numerical simulations revealed a certain degree of connectivity between the Sicilian–Maltese and the African sides of the SoS. Connectivity is present in both directions, but it is stronger from the Sicilian–Maltese spawning areas to the African nurseries owing to the marine circulation features of the region. However, because the majority of the larvae are transported to areas unsuitable for settlement or outside the SoS, the dispersal process is characterized by a strong loss of potential settlers born in the spawning areas. These results are in agreement with the low genetic heterogeneity reported for this species in the Mediterranean Sea and support the existence of a metapopulation structure of red mullet in the SoS and the adjacent areas.     

江淮杂交中籼水稻品质性状基因型与播期互作的AMMI模型分析

为明确杂交中籼水稻在江淮地区种植的适宜播期,提高稻米品质,选用3个杂交中籼水稻品种(系)分5个播期,利用AMMI模型对其营养食味品质性状(糊化温度、胶稠度、直链淀粉含量、蛋白质含量)进行了稳定性和适应性分析。结果表明,糊化温度、胶稠度、直链淀粉含量、蛋白质含量4项指标在基因型间、播期间及基因型×播期互作间的方差均达到极显著水平,这4项指标的交互效应主成分值(IPCA)差异也达到显著水平;穗期(抽穗至成熟期)平均气温较高、累计日照时数长、气温日较差大,有利于杂交中籼水稻品质的提高;3个参试品种(系)营养食味品质稳定性表现为新两优6号两优1128丰两优4号,5个播期对杂交中籼水稻品质影响表现为4月20日5月10日5月20日4月30日5月30日。     

茶树GGPS基因家族的克隆、生物信息学和表达分析

牻牛儿基牻牛儿基焦磷酸合酶(Geranylgeranyl diphosphate synthase,GGPS)是萜类合成途径的结构酶,对植物生长发育具有重要意义。本研究通过RACE和RT-PCR方法克隆得到5条潜在的茶树GGPS序列,分别命名为CsGGPS1-4和CsGGPS9,其中CsGGPS9存在3条等位基因,分别是CsGGPS9-1、CsGGPS9-2和CsGGPS9-3,在系统进化树上与其他基因分成两支。蛋白质序列分析表明,茶树GGPS家族成员都具有polyprenyl_synt结构域,不存在信号肽序列。亚细胞定位预测结果显示,CsGGPS1、CsGGPS2和CsGGPS4定位在叶绿体上,CsGGPS3和CsGGPS9定位在线粒体上。通过Swiss Model进行三维建模,结合"three-floor"模型对茶树GGPS家族成员的功能进行预测,预测结果显示,CsGGPS1、CsGGPS2和CsGGPS4是GGPS;CsGGPS3是异源二聚体形式的牻牛儿基焦磷酸合酶的小亚基;CsGGPS9的催化主产物是碳链数大于30的异戊烯基焦磷酸。q RT-PCR分析表明,CsGGPS1整体表达丰度较低,仅在一芽二叶中表达量稍高;CsGGPS2在茶树各个组织中均有表达,在花中表达量最高,且花发育过程中表达量先上升后下降;CsGGPS3在叶和幼根中的表达量高于花,花发育过程中表达平稳;CsGGPS4在茶树各个组织中表达量数值相近,在花发育过程中表达量变化趋势与CsGGPS2相同;CsGGPS9的表达量在成熟叶中显著低于幼嫩叶片。     

青藏高原草地降水利用效率时空动态及对气候变化的响应

本研究利用CASA(Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach)模型模拟了2000—2013年青藏高原草地净植被生产力(Net Primary Production，NPP)，结合实测数据、气象数据和土地覆被数据计算了草地降水利用效率（PUE），探究其时空分布特征，以及不同草地类型PUE及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明：青藏高原草地PUE在研究年限内呈现波动增加趋势，增加速率为每年0.0035 g·m^-2·mm^-1，14 a的平均值为0.38 g·m^-2·mm^-1。PUE的空间分布具有明显的异质性，呈现东部高、中西部低的基本格局。PUE分布在0.2～0.4 g·m^-2·mm^-1之间的比例最大，占青藏高原总面积的55.63%，呈减少趋势的区域主要分布在青藏高原的北部和西部，以及东部的边界地区，呈增加趋势的地区集中在研究区的中部和南部。研究年限内PUE的变异系数分布在0.07～0.85之间，变化稳定的区域所占面积最大，为总面积的43.43%，主要分布在唐古拉山脉和横断山脉附近。不同草地类型间PUE均值存在差异，具体表现为：草甸（1.06 g·m^-2·mm^-1）>坡面草地（0.80 g·m^-2·mm^-1）>平原草地（0.30 g·m^-2·mm^-1）>高山与亚高山草甸（0.29 g·m^-2·mm^-1）>荒漠草地（0.23 g·m^-2·mm^-1）>高山与亚高山草地（0.094 g·m^-2·mm^-1）。总体上，青藏高原草地PUE与降水成负相关关系，而与气温呈正相关，PUE的变化对降水响应更加敏感。     

同源四倍体及其原二倍体黑皮冬瓜光合光响应模型筛选

为了筛选出最适合黑皮冬瓜Benincasa hispida (Thunb.) Cogn.的光合光响应模型,为其育种提供理论依据,以同源四倍体及其原二倍体黑皮冬瓜为试验材料,对8种经典的光合光响应模型适用性进行了比较分析。结果表明：二次多项式能够表现出光抑制情况,但在拟合过程中出现暗呼吸速率为正值、光补偿点为负值及无法解释当光强达到饱和后光合速率快速下降的问题;直角双曲线、非直角双曲线及指数函数Ⅰ、指数函数Ⅱ无法直接求取光饱和点、光补偿点,结合常用的光饱和点的计算方法得到的光饱和点与实测值均存在较大的偏差,且指数函数Ⅱ在计算光饱和点时表现出明显的人为性,也无法拟合光抑制情况,但4种模型拟合得到的光补偿点均与实测值相差不大;指数修正模型因系数β为负值,无法求取四倍体黑皮冬瓜材料的光饱和点和最大净光合速率,且拟合得到的四倍体黑皮冬瓜的光补偿点明显低于实测值;直角双曲线修正模型计算得到的暗呼吸速率及二倍体黑皮冬瓜的光饱和点明显低于实测值,但获得的四倍体及其二倍体的最大净光合速率与实测值最接近,说明其在拟合最大净光合速率上有优势;整体上分段函数计算得到的黑皮冬瓜的各光合参数与实测值最为接近,与实测值的平均相对误差最小,也能很好的拟合发生光抑制部分的光响应曲线。分段函数拟合同源四倍体及其原二倍体黑皮冬瓜光合光响应曲线效果较其他模型效果好,分段函数模型为黑皮冬瓜最适合的光合光响应模型。     

浑善达克沙地杨树水分利用特征

为探究浑善达克沙地杨树的水分利用特征。本文利用氢和氧同位素示踪技术,测定了降雨、土壤水与地下水的δ18O值,利用多元线性混合模型定量计算了杨树对不同土层土壤水分的利用比例。结果表明:①浑善达克沙地大气降雨方程线为:δDLWML=7.84δ^18OLWML+9.12,斜率比全国降雨方程偏小,体现了研究区降雨少,蒸发大的气候特征;②土壤含水量与地下水位埋深、降雨量、植物生长期的变化有着显著的相关关系。降雨量较大与地下水位埋深较浅的时期,土壤含水量明显增大,在植物生长前期和中期,土壤含水量明显较低;③杨树在雨季,利用了大量的浅层土壤水(0~40 cm),在较为干旱的旱季,利用了大量的深层土壤(160~200 cm)水与少量的地下水。     

基于MOOC的阿坝州藏汉双语"一类模式"地理教师继续教育研究

藏汉双语“一类模式”已经成为阿坝州最具地方特点和民族特色的教育模式,但藏汉双语地理老师极度缺乏,传统的培训模式存在诸多不足。MOOC的出现正好弥补了这些不足,在阿坝州藏汉双语“一类模式”地理教师继续教育中具有明显优越性。结合阿坝师范学院对汶川县水磨中学地理教师培训的经验,梳理了现有的MOOC地理资源,最终构建了“学用结合,以用促学”的新型继续教育模式。